Here’s the deal with polls: they suck at this time of year. It’s hard to tell what’s going on these days, especially when there’s two different readings from the same poll data, as happened yesterday. Over-hyped former Kossack Nate Silver paints a rosy picture using the RCP average of polls, which itself tells a different story, and nobody knows what’s going on. But I warned you earlier this year about the folly of the new-fangled fashion, polling averages. They’re designed to muddy the waters, because Team Obama needs the waters to be muddied.
Color me old fashioned, but the most reliable polls over the years have been Gallup, Rasmussen, and Pew, and I trust them more this year, too. They’ve all begun to apply the likely voter filter, which some other pollsters aren’t doing. Gallup is the nation’s oldest pollster, and typically the least partisan. There was some question whether that was going to hold true this year in light of the fact that Attorney General Holder was seen twisting some arms over some chump-change contracts and an Obama-affiliated “whistle-blower.” That’s not happening so far. Gallup has Romney up 5 among likely voters as it suspends polling in the wake of the east coast storm. We’ll see where that ends up.
The real news out of Gallup is that Romney has wiped out the advantage Obama had even among registered voters, and is in the lead–and even in turnout–with early voters. Gallup reports that GOP voters are matching Dem voters’ turnout, and that Romney is in the lead with early voters by a margin of 52% to 45%. This means we’re at a point where even early voting and GOTV can’t give Obama an edge.
As for Rasmussen and Pew, they are the partisan sibling pollsters we’ve all come to know over the years. Rasmussen has a more solid record of recording accurate numbers over the course of an election, but Pew always moves closer to accuracy in the final two weeks in order to save their reputations. Right now Rasmussen has Romney up 2 and Pew is showing a dead heat, trending Romney. So the big dogs are falling into line, as they must do if they want to keep their jobs and sell their products. There are some things even Obama can’t game, and a company’s profit margin is apparently one of them.
But don’t just trust the polls. Look at around you and smell the desperation in the air. It’s more obvious than an erection on a 14 year old boy at a high school cheerleader practice. Yesterday everyone wanted to know if a storm ravaging a BLUE coast would halt Romney’s momentum, and the Labor Department is playing coy with the jobs report. Stories abounded that Romney wanted to cut FEMA. Obama’s feelings were hurt over the JEEP story AND Benghazi. Because, you know, periodically, when he’s feeling down, Obama might let you know he knows he’s losing. Meanwhile, Obamacrats are running with old, familiar canards.
All of this gives us reason to have some confidence, and while we could still see some movement and/or desperate dirty tricks, I’m pretty sure this thing is already over. I’m now looking forward to November 6th. I suspect we’ll all be able to go to bed by midnight, with or without Ohio reporting. Except for Obots, of course. They’ll be up crying and drinking until the wee hours of the morning. Make sure you lock your doors.