Polls That Matter

Here’s the deal with polls: they suck at this time of year. It’s hard to tell what’s going on these days, especially when there’s two different readings from the same poll data, as happened yesterday. Over-hyped former Kossack Nate Silver paints a rosy picture using the RCP average of polls, which itself tells a different story, and nobody knows what’s going on. But I warned you earlier this year about the folly of the new-fangled fashion, polling averages. They’re designed to muddy the waters, because Team Obama needs the waters to be muddied.

Color me old fashioned, but the most reliable polls over the years have been Gallup, Rasmussen, and Pew, and I trust them more this year, too. They’ve all begun to apply the likely voter filter, which some other pollsters aren’t doing. Gallup is the nation’s oldest pollster, and typically the least partisan. There was some question whether that was going to hold true this year in light of the fact that Attorney General Holder was seen twisting some arms over some chump-change contracts and an Obama-affiliated “whistle-blower.” That’s not happening so far. Gallup has Romney up 5 among likely voters as it suspends polling in the wake of the east coast storm. We’ll see where that ends up.

The real news out of Gallup is that Romney has wiped out the advantage Obama had even among registered voters, and is in the lead–and even in turnout–with early voters. Gallup reports that GOP voters are matching Dem voters’ turnout, and that Romney is in the lead with early voters by a margin of 52% to 45%. This means we’re at a point where even early voting and GOTV can’t give Obama an edge.

As for Rasmussen and Pew, they are the partisan sibling pollsters we’ve all come to know over the years. Rasmussen has a more solid record of recording accurate numbers over the course of an election, but Pew always moves closer to accuracy in the final two weeks in order to save their reputations. Right now Rasmussen has Romney up 2 and Pew is showing a dead heat, trending Romney. So the big dogs are falling into line, as they must do if they want to keep their jobs and sell their products. There are some things even Obama can’t game, and a company’s profit margin is apparently one of them.

But don’t just trust the polls. Look at around you and smell the desperation in the air. It’s more obvious than an erection on a 14 year old boy at a high school cheerleader practice. Yesterday everyone wanted to know if a storm ravaging a BLUE coast would halt Romney’s momentum, and the Labor Department is playing coy with the jobs report. Stories abounded that Romney wanted to cut FEMA. Obama’s feelings were hurt over the JEEP story AND Benghazi. Because, you know, periodically, when he’s feeling down, Obama might let you know he knows he’s losing. Meanwhile, Obamacrats are running with old, familiar canards.

All of this gives us reason to have some confidence, and while we could still see some movement and/or desperate dirty tricks, I’m pretty sure this thing is already over. I’m now looking forward to November 6th. I suspect we’ll all be able to go to bed by midnight, with or without Ohio reporting. Except for Obots, of course. They’ll be up crying and drinking until the wee hours of the morning. Make sure you lock your doors.

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8 comments on “Polls That Matter

  1. my gut tells me that Romney will take Ohio. I’ve seen these signs in Ohio before, and at this point the candidate with the momentum wins. And Romney’s got it. It is going to kill the Democrats here…….

  2. I so want to able to stay up all night celebrating- alas- I used up my lifetime allocation of all nighters long long ago.
    That’s Ok- I get up early. So on Nov 7th I can be up at the butt crack of dawn to watch the morning talking heads exploding.
    Especially that back stabbing George Stuffitupyourass.

  3. Saw Chuck Todd on TeeVee this morning talking about Obama and his suspending his campaign to “manage” the storm. He then went on to talk about Mitt Romney turning his campaign today into a relief effort.

    You could hear the dripping contempt and disgust in his voice as his verbally concluded that (to paraphrase) “Romney, on the other hand, has made this day about collecting relief supplies…in OHIO”

    I am surprised he didn’t actually SNEER.

    These people make me sick. WHO CARES where relief supplies come from Chuck?

    Hope someone can find a clip.

  4. tommy says:

    Personally, I trust only 2 polling organizations – Gallup and Rasmussen. Elections and candidates come and go, but these two have their reputations to maintain. Hope we have a comfortable victory, Anna Belle. I don’t like it that Rassie has R up only by 2. Come D-day, if O is only a single percentage point behind R, the electoral college vs. popular vote (the ones that polling pundits have been yammering about) might come into play. Thats my only worry.

  5. http://www.mittromney.com/blog/memo-pennsylvania

    What a difference a few days makes. Not only has Minnesota has been moved to “Lean Dem” and the Obama Campaign is up in that state with a significant television buy, but the Chicago gurus have heeded Governor Rendell’s plea and are buying television in Pennsylvania and sending the Vice-President in to help prop up their flagging campaign.

    With one week to go, and 96% of the vote on the table on Election Day in Pennsylvania, this expansion of the electoral map demonstrates that Governor Romney’s momentum has jumped containment from the usual target states and has spread to deeper blue states that Chicago never anticipated defending.

  6. http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2012/10/politics_why_i_2.php

    If you’re a data geek, the above post is one you will not want to miss. It’s basically what I’ve been saying all along. Obama’s only hope is to exceed his voter turnout in the exact same categories, across every category just in order to beat GOP enthusiasm this year. And he’s not doing it among the two areas he needs to most: independents and the gender gap. That gender gap goes both ways, remember, and not only is Obama down among women, Romney is way, way up among men. Independents are flooding to Romney. The post above has the data to back all this up. The title is Why I Think Obama is Toast.

  7. yttik says:

    I understand people voting in 2008 because they believed in hope and change, but now in 2012 I just don’t see people voting for unemployment and despair.

  8. conner43 says:

    We voted early in Fl on Mon. It was odd, we voted at our local library, located in a total white bread area, comprised of white collar young families and retirees from NY. It is mostly gated communities. We waited on line almost two hours and half those waiting were AfAm’s, who had to drive some distance to get to that location. We tried to vote on Sunday at the Board of Election headquarters and gave up after moving 10 feet in 40 mins, , 99% Af Am there too.. Obama must have a hell of a ground game in Palm Beach County to get out the early vote.
    I hope this doesn’t make me sound like the R word, but it was kind of surreal, I am very familiar with these neighborhoods…I hope I was just witnessing Democracy in action, but it smells fishy somehow.

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