Obama’s Glass Jaw Strategy

Well, well, well. Look what we have here. Obama is trying the famous “glass jaw strategy” that he and his supporters criticized Hillary Clinton for. Is Mark Penn working for the White House now?

Let’s start with the TOTUS comeback. After going off the TOTUS juice last month and committing the gaffe to end all gaffes, TOTUS is back on tour.

President Obama spoke to supporters in Florida this afternoon, but was careful to stick to his script, relying heavily on his teleprompters.

The president campaigned without teleprompters last month, when he made his  controversial “you didn’t build that” remark about business owners.

A campaign aide insisted last week that Obama’s slip up wouldn’t change the campaign’s teleprompter strategy.

So much for the most articulate president evah! But let’s talk polls. Two came out this week suggesting that, in spite of the “you didn’t build that” gaffetacular, Obama is improving his lot. Don’t believe it for a moment.

First up is Quinnipiac, which dominated Memeorandum for the entire day on Wednesday, proclaiming that Obama was ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, and even worse, he broke 50% in all three states. But when you look at the internals, it’s obvious why.

Florida:

Republican                 27%

Democrat                   36

Independent              32

Note: The poll also oversampled women, and undersampled self-identified evangelical voters.

———

Ohio:

Republican                 27%

Democrat                   35

Independent              32

Note: And again, women were significantly oversampled, while evangelicals were undersampled.

———

Pennsylvania:

Republican                 32%

Democrat                   38

Independent              26

Note: Women again oversampled, evangelicals and Catholics undersampled in this highly Catholic state.

Next up is the Pew favorability polling data out Thursday, knocking Obama up over 50% for the first time this electoral season. Again, this data is highly suspect. The internals look like this:

32% Dem

18% GOP

Republican Voters 459
Democrat Voters 813
Independent Voters 599

Not only are Democrats grossly oversampled (I’ve never actually seen a poll this skewed in 20 years of voting), independent voters are also grossly skewed. Pewsters also added this little paragraph to their report:

A review of final pre-election surveys of voters since 1988 finds that all candidates enjoyed considerably higher personal ratings going into the final days of their campaigns than does Mitt Romney currently. In fact, only three, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996, were not rated favorably by a majority of voters. Obama’s current ratings also are lower than the pre-election ratings of most other recent presidential candidates.

This is what a real glass jaw strategy looks like, folks. On John Smart’s Show yesterday Tamerlane made some very good points about these polls, including that they may be designed to dampen independent/swing vote turn out, especially in swing states. I’m hoping he writes it up at True Liberal Nexus, and will update this post if he does.

But this is a strategy that is bound to fail. They really believe that a little momentum can overcome a very bad economy, increased jobless claims (as we’re seeing today), and four years of incoherent policy coming from a novice learning on the job. It’s not going to work. In fact, it’s so bad, I saw something on Thursday I’d never seen before. On the Politico article that breathlessly reported the new Pew numbers, there was so much pushback that they had to publish this update:

UPDATE: We’ve been getting emails from readers pointing out that the sample of the poll is skewed toward Democrats. This is a fair point: the poll does sample significantly more Democrats than Republicans. As I noted above, these results are different than the mostly static numbers we’ve seen so far — the sampling numbers explain why.

The article reads like this now: “Hey, check out these fabulous numbers! Oh wait, buzzkill; it’s grossly skewed.”

The press has zero credibility, and may in fact ultimately hurt Obama. At a certain point, the press looks like the supercool party bullies in a John Hughs film, and the audience can’t wait for the little geeky main character to get the best of them. They’ll be cheering Romney on by the end of this.

Because the real preview of what’s to come happened with Chik-Fil-A on Wednesday and the Cruz win on Tuesday. That and the new unemployment numbers, on top of the bad GDP report from last week are what these polls and this new strategy are all about.

Team Obama is absolutely desperate to turn this around, but he’s playing to all the wrong audiences. If he wants to win, he’s going to have to appeal to the American people on honest, authentic, ethical ground. Unfortunately for him, he and his team are so inexperienced they don’t know what that looks like. They’re going with what appeals to them, and that’s flashy marketing and bad action movies where the ending is preordained.

What they’ve got is the derivative plays mistakes that all new college grads make and fake it till you make it, which has been their strategy so far, along with the tried and true method of choice for every Obama campaign he’s ever run, as articulated nicely by Ann Coulter, of all people.

Obama’s usual campaign method, used in 100 percent of his races, has been to pry into the private records of his opponents.

That’s why they continue so desperately to try to force Romney’s hand on the tax returns, because without them, all they been able to dig up is this.

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12 comments on “Obama’s Glass Jaw Strategy

  1. 1539days says:

    This is a matter of stacking errors on errors. When RCP or someone does and average of polls, they all get weighted in the same realm, which gives them equivalence regardless of the quality of the poll. Rasmussen uses likely voters earlier which is a completely different standard, for example. When you “average” polls, you create a weighted sum, which means that the 3-4% standard margin of error increases with every additional poll in the pool. If Obama is “ahead” by 5 points in a bunch of flawed polls, not only is it flawed but the MOE could be as high as 10%.

    Watch the campaigns and follow the money. Romney and Obama are doing legitimate internal polls and they know what’s really going on. Obama is spending like a drunken sailor and Romney is keeping his powder dry.

    I wrote a post the other day about how Obama is doing more fundraising and negative ads and getting smaller returns. Plus, his strategy of nonstop campaigning is putting a loser stink on him,
    http://daysofchange.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/day-1365-kiss-my-ass/

    • Anna Belle says:

      Totally agree with you, days, and that was a good post. You can tell what the internal polls are saying by watching the campaigns actions. I’m trying to reverse engineer the tactics to date and the strategies going forward. So far, I’m on point. Right now I think Romney will win by the Walker margin, which is 7%. That could change, but note that it’s on par with your 10% MoE, adjusted.

  2. SHV says:

    “They really believe that a little momentum can overcome a very bad economy, increased jobless claims (as we’re seeing today), and four years of incoherent policy coming from a novice learning on the job.”
    ***********
    This election is between two factions of the same political party. With that said, Romney is going to win in a blow out.

    I would also quibble with “novice learning on the job”. The concepts of “learning” and “job” are utterly alien for a person with Obama’s psychopathology.

    • Anna Belle says:

      LOL@ your last point. I do have to disagree with you on the same factions of one party. I really do think Romney is a different kind of GOP candidate. If his actions in MA are any indication, everybody will have to take a hit to bring the books back into balance. and being a business with lobbyists will be no guarantee of protection. What makes him acceptable to Wall Street is that once he does balance the budget, it will be good for business. They know they can’t carry on the casino forever, and they’d rather have a pro-business pol bring them back in line.

      • 1539days says:

        I see the Obot left and some of the left in general adopting the argument that this election isn’t about anything. Obama has been an incompetent socialist, trying to adopt the tenets of government run society but taking bribes from corporations to make sure it’s THEIR kind of government run society. The reality is, however, that Obama is doubling down on all the touchstones of the left. He’s talking about gay marriage, taxing the wealthy and how everyone is a tool of the government and not the other way around.

        Obama’s rhetoric could possibly destroy liberal philosophy in the minds of voters for a generation. Look what Carter did for it. There is a pretty clear line between Obama and Romney right now, and it’s only getting more stark when Romney starts his campaign in earnest.

  3. SHV says:

    “I do have to disagree with you on the same factions of one party. I really do think Romney is a different kind of GOP candidate. ”
    ********
    I agree that Romney seems to be a pre-Reagan “country club” Republican. Our “two” parties, however, operate like the Illinois consortium; don’t let politics interfere with the flow of money. If you follow the money and see who benefits, then the politics that the public see is just street theater, both “parties” are working for the same employers.

  4. SHV says:

    ” Obama has been an incompetent socialist..”
    ********
    That is the real danger of a 2nd Obama term, he is neither incompetent nor a socialist or a Muslim, commie or any other “normal” descriptive term. Political views or visions for the future, no matter how divergent can be worked with or around; Obama is functioning in an entirely different psychological universe; one that is described by using 123 “I, me mine” in a 20 minute speech. If he is President for a second term any restraint on his narcissism will be gone.

    • 1539days says:

      Ultimately, he’s a guy who should have been caught by the various filters that stop the incompetent from getting jobs with great responsibility. I’m perfectly willing to justify the socialism thing, but I’ll simply point to the evidence that all his associations have been with radicals and anarchists and proponents of redistribution. He “gave” bailouts to bankers but it was in return for campaign money. He bailed out GM but did it in a way that the small business owners were screwed and the unions were left almost entirely alone. It’s crony capitalism and you can turn it in either direction.

  5. SHV says:

    “Ultimately, he’s a guy who should have been caught by the various filters……It’s crony capitalism and you can turn it in either direction.”
    ******
    Pretty much sums up the last four years.

  6. Told ya. A false narrative of momentum is now officially on the books. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79370.html

    “The president and Democrats in Congress move into the August recess with clear momentum on the question of who to trust on taxes and, more broadly, whose economic agenda will benefit the middle class,” Plouffe wrote in the memo obtained by POLITICO. “Over the coming weeks, there is an opportunity to build on this momentum and shape the legislative agenda this fall by highlighting the choice Congress faces at this make-or-break moment for the middle class.”

    Obama’s #1 strategy right now: Fake it till you make it.

    • 1539days says:

      “obtained by POLITICO.” I assume that means Plouffe faxed it to them. They basically transcribed it.

      • Yep. Even in this strategy, though, they are clueless. August has traditionally been a big yawnfest, even in an election year. So what? They have momentum going into a yawnfest? So they now have to tread water for three more weeks before the GOP convention? That’ll show the electorate!

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