Well, well, well. Look what we have here. Obama is trying the famous “glass jaw strategy” that he and his supporters criticized Hillary Clinton for. Is Mark Penn working for the White House now?
Let’s start with the TOTUS comeback. After going off the TOTUS juice last month and committing the gaffe to end all gaffes, TOTUS is back on tour.
President Obama spoke to supporters in Florida this afternoon, but was careful to stick to his script, relying heavily on his teleprompters.
A campaign aide insisted last week that Obama’s slip up wouldn’t change the campaign’s teleprompter strategy.
So much for the most articulate president evah! But let’s talk polls. Two came out this week suggesting that, in spite of the “you didn’t build that” gaffetacular, Obama is improving his lot. Don’t believe it for a moment.
First up is Quinnipiac, which dominated Memeorandum for the entire day on Wednesday, proclaiming that Obama was ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, and even worse, he broke 50% in all three states. But when you look at the internals, it’s obvious why.
Note: The poll also oversampled women, and undersampled self-identified evangelical voters.
Note: And again, women were significantly oversampled, while evangelicals were undersampled.
Note: Women again oversampled, evangelicals and Catholics undersampled in this highly Catholic state.
Next up is the Pew favorability polling data out Thursday, knocking Obama up over 50% for the first time this electoral season. Again, this data is highly suspect. The internals look like this:
Republican Voters 459
Democrat Voters 813
Independent Voters 599
Not only are Democrats grossly oversampled (I’ve never actually seen a poll this skewed in 20 years of voting), independent voters are also grossly skewed. Pewsters also added this little paragraph to their report:
A review of final pre-election surveys of voters since 1988 finds that all candidates enjoyed considerably higher personal ratings going into the final days of their campaigns than does Mitt Romney currently. In fact, only three, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996, were not rated favorably by a majority of voters. Obama’s current ratings also are lower than the pre-election ratings of most other recent presidential candidates.
This is what a real glass jaw strategy looks like, folks. On John Smart’s Show yesterday Tamerlane made some very good points about these polls, including that they may be designed to dampen independent/swing vote turn out, especially in swing states. I’m hoping he writes it up at True Liberal Nexus, and will update this post if he does.
But this is a strategy that is bound to fail. They really believe that a little momentum can overcome a very bad economy, increased jobless claims (as we’re seeing today), and four years of incoherent policy coming from a novice learning on the job. It’s not going to work. In fact, it’s so bad, I saw something on Thursday I’d never seen before. On the Politico article that breathlessly reported the new Pew numbers, there was so much pushback that they had to publish this update:
UPDATE: We’ve been getting emails from readers pointing out that the sample of the poll is skewed toward Democrats. This is a fair point: the poll does sample significantly more Democrats than Republicans. As I noted above, these results are different than the mostly static numbers we’ve seen so far — the sampling numbers explain why.
The article reads like this now: “Hey, check out these fabulous numbers! Oh wait, buzzkill; it’s grossly skewed.”
The press has zero credibility, and may in fact ultimately hurt Obama. At a certain point, the press looks like the supercool party bullies in a John Hughs film, and the audience can’t wait for the little geeky main character to get the best of them. They’ll be cheering Romney on by the end of this.
Because the real preview of what’s to come happened with Chik-Fil-A on Wednesday and the Cruz win on Tuesday. That and the new unemployment numbers, on top of the bad GDP report from last week are what these polls and this new strategy are all about.
Team Obama is absolutely desperate to turn this around, but he’s playing to all the wrong audiences. If he wants to win, he’s going to have to appeal to the American people on honest, authentic, ethical ground. Unfortunately for him, he and his team are so inexperienced they don’t know what that looks like. They’re going with what appeals to them, and that’s flashy marketing and bad action movies where the ending is preordained.
What they’ve got is the derivative
plays mistakes that all new college grads make and fake it till you make it, which has been their strategy so far, along with the tried and true method of choice for every Obama campaign he’s ever run, as articulated nicely by Ann Coulter, of all people.
Obama’s usual campaign method, used in 100 percent of his races, has been to pry into the private records of his opponents.
That’s why they continue so desperately to try to force Romney’s hand on the tax returns, because without them, all they been able to dig up is this.